Conspiracy Theories

Mapping the journey down the rabbithole – and back again – in conspiracy theorists’ own words.

No. 005

The Conspiracy Theories Issue

About this issue

Conspiracy theories have legitimized violence, impaired public health, and undermined democratic governance. Containing their harms begins with understanding the theorist, not the theory.

The Problem

For Judy it was about the children.

“F or a while there, there was this hashtag, ‘save our children,’” she recalls of her early involvement with QAnon, a conspiracy theory movement that holds, among other things, that a group of prominent politicians and celebrities run an underground child sex trafficking ring. “It was trending on Twitter. It was everywhere. And I was spreading that hashtag too. I was raising awareness. This was for the greater good.”

A former school teacher from southern Mississippi, Judy – whose name has been changed to protect her identity – first learned about QAnon from a post in a Facebook group dedicated to another conspiracy theory that she had joined several years earlier at the invitation of a friend. Curious, Judy began researching “Q” on the internet, subsequently finding a rich community on Twitter and Facebook, all dedicated to saving children from the clutches of a satanic cabal.

“Someone would share a news article that says: ‘13 children saved in Michigan from sex trafficking operation.’ And then you think, ‘Okay! It’s working!’ And you just get caught up in that,” she says. “I did. I wanted to feel like I was doing something good. I wanted to feel like I was part of the solution.”

QAnon draws equal support from Republicans and Democrats, with

6% of Both Parties

endorsing the theory, according to a 2019 poll by Emerson College

QAnon has drawn outsized media attention since the theory first emerged on the anonymous image board 4chan in October 2017, due to both the outlandishness of its claims and its embrace by public figures, politicians, and a number of individuals who participated in the storming of the US Capitol on January 6, 2021.1

QAnon adherents, however, represent only one, highly-political branch of the wider world of conspiracy theory believers.

Conspiracy theories can be defined as stories that explain the ultimate causes of significant social and political events by means of secret plots between two or more powerful actors.2 While actual conspiracies do and have occurred, conspiracy theories lack any empirical support. Most often, they are built on a foundation of misinformation and misinterpretations of actual happenings and couched so as to be unfalsifiable.

Although recent media coverage has primarily focused on right-wing conspiracy theories, belief in conspiracy is non-partisan. According to polling conducted by Emerson College in 2019, even QAnon, frequently depicted as a fringe right-wing phenomenon, drew equal support – 6 percent – from both Republicans and Democrats.3

“I wanted to feel like I was doing something good. I wanted to feel like I was part of the solution.”

— Judy

Conspiracy theories are further not a novel phenomenon of the internet age. In 1798, a Lutheran preacher from Maryland wrote to George Washington to warn him of a dire threat; a secret group with the express aim of overthrowing all governments and religions, was spreading like wildfire. The name of the group behind the plot will be familiar even to those with only a passing acquaintance with conspiracy theories: the Illuminati.4

Conspiracy theories have periodically convulsed the nation ever since. The anti-Masonic movement of the 1830s and 1840s, anti-Catholic sentiment in the early 20th century, and the anti-Communist movement of the 1940s and 50s were all rife with conspiracies in which the fate of the nation hung in the balance.

In 2020, researchers found that more than forty percent of Americans endorsed at least one of eight conspiracy theories.5 Critically, all eight conspiracy theories covered by this poll related only to domestic political events of the prior four years, omitting long-standing and much more popular theories, including those related to the assassination of JFK and 9/11.

As the number of conspiracy theories researchers poll on rises, the percentage of people who endorse at least one rises in tandem.6 A 2018 study conducted in Florida found 80 percent of respondents endorsed at least one of 9 conspiracy theories.7 While many hold these beliefs only loosely, for some they can become an obsession.

9/11 Truther

What percent of Americans do you think believe the US Government knowingly helped to make the 9/11 terrorist attacks happen in America on 11 September, 2001?

Russian Collusion

What percent of Americans do you think believe members of Donald Trump's election team knowingly worked with the Russian Government to help him win the 2016 US Presidential Election?

Anti-Vaxx

What percent of Americans do you think believe the truth about the harmful effects of vaccines is being deliberately hidden from the public?

Not exactly Good guess! Close! Perfect!

Belief in this theory is significantly lessmore common than you guessed. Belief in this theory is slightly lessmore common than you guessed. Belief in this theory is close to what you guessed. Belief in this theory is exactly as common as you guessed.

0%Your guess

0%Answer

All data courtesy of YouGov and the YouGov-Cambridge Globalism Project. Polling was conducted between August 4, 2021 and September 21, 2021.

Conspiracy theory belief further appears not to be bound by country or culture. Researchers found similar levels of engagement with conspiracy theories across the United States and Europe. Individuals’ country of residence further provided little value as a predictor of engagement with conspiracy theories.8

Despite the lengthy history and global popularity of conspiracy theories, a common perception exists that the world now faces a unique inflection point in the history of conspiratorial theories, and not just among conspiracy theorists. In 2020, publications including Politico, CNN, and the Guardian all mused on the current “golden age” of conspiracies, while the Economist reported on the surge of conspiracies, “from Congo to the Capitol.”9 10 11 12

Recent research indicates, however, that the overall level of belief in conspiracy theories in the US has changed little, if at all, over the last 65 years.13 An analysis of 120,000 letters to the editors of the New York Times and the Chicago Tribune between 1890 and 2010 likewise found consistent levels of conspiracy theorizing across time.14 Over the last ten years, the period for which consistent polling data is available, the overall level of “conspiratorial thinking” – the general tendency to see hidden plots behind world events – has likewise remained steady, with roughly 30 percent of Americans consistently agreeing or strongly agreeing with statements like “much of our lives are controlled by plots hatched in secret.“15 16 Even during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, when restrictions on socializing were at their most stringent and the future deeply uncertain, belief in conspiracy theories related to the virus remained remarkably stable.17

Joe Uscisnki, a professor of political science at the University of Miami and an expert on conspiracy theories explains, “We’re paying a lot more attention to conspiracy theories than we used to, but it’s important not to confuse paying more attention with there being more of it out there. Across time, consistent percentages of people believe conspiracy theories, with very few conspiracy theories showing increases in subsequent polls.”

Rather than an explosion of new belief, technology may instead be driving greater awareness of fringe beliefs that have been with us all along.

Sixty-five years ago, Marshall McLuhan, imagining an internet that had not yet been born, wrote “The shock of recognition! In an electronic information environment the minority can no longer be contained – ignored. Too many people know too much about each other. Our new environment compels commitment and participation. We have become irrevocably involved with, and responsible for, each other.”18 McLuhan’s utopian vision has, unfortunately, failed to be fully realized. While the quantity of available information has indeed grown exponentially in recent years, understanding has often lagged behind, and simple awareness has proven as capable of provoking antipathy as empathy.

Even if belief in conspiracy theories is not becoming more widespread, the internet, and social media and image boards in particular, have fundamentally changed how these theories develop and spread.19 20

In prior eras, conspiracy theories spread primarily through obscure books and films, late night radio programs, and alternative lifestyle conferences, creating a barrier to entry. By allowing anyone to become a publisher and propagator of conspiracy theories, and connecting them with like-minded communities, the internet has enabled new conspiracy theories to develop and spread far more rapidly.

Rather than an explosion of new belief, technology may instead be driving greater awareness of fringe beliefs that have been with us all along.

This change has democratized the process of conspiracy theory creation while minting a new generation of influencers and conspiracy theory entrepreneurs eager to monetize the attention – and anxieties – of believers.21 To give just a hint of the scale of discourse afforded by the internet, a study led by the RAND Corporation with support from Jigsaw examined 150,000 posts supporting just four theories among the dozens that circulate online over a span of 3 months.22

It is critical here to distinguish between belief in simple misinformation and belief in conspiracy theories. Belief in misinformation – incorrect understanding or misinterpretation of what has happened or is happening – is near universal, a product of human cognitive biases and our imperfect memories. But within conspiracy theories, these fragments of misunderstanding and false belief coalesce into a broader narrative that seeks to make sense of the world, purportedly revealing not merely what has happened, but why.

Conspiracy theory belief is supported by an underlying worldview that can render those beliefs particularly resistant to debunking. By their very nature, conspiracy theories are unfalsifiable, and for strong adherents they fill deep emotional needs.23

New World Order

What percent of Americans do you think believe regardless of who is officially in charge of governments and other organisations, there is a single group of people who secretly control events and rule the world together?

Global Warming Hoax

What percent of Americans do you think believe the idea of man-made global warming is a hoax that was invented to deceive people?

Alien Contact

What percent of Americans do you think believe humans have made contact with aliens and this fact has been deliberately hidden from the public?

Not exactly Good guess! Close! Perfect!

0%Your guess

0%Answer

All data courtesy of YouGov and the YouGov-Cambridge Globalism Project. Polling was conducted between August 4, 2021 and September 21, 2021.

In a 2017 review of existing research on the psychological appeals of conspiracy theories, researchers found these theories promise to fulfill fundamental epistemic, existential and social needs of believers. Conspiracy theories offer a type of transmutation, replacing the irreducible ambiguities of life with a palpable, if shallow and ultimately illusory, sense of certainty. That certainty, in turn, works to produce a sense of control in place of helplessness, and a feeling of communal and personal pride – a conviction that one is not only in the right, but even saving the world – in place of anomie and alienation.24

Attacks on conspiracy theories can, as a result, be perceived as attacks on adherents' very identity, leading them to reject contrary evidence and potentially pushing them further down the rabbithole.25

While for many belief in conspiracy theories is ultimately relatively harmless, for some the effects of these theories can be devastating, both for themselves and for society at large. To contain this threat, it must first be understood.

These things don’t
“just happen”

The details of every conspiracy theory are unique. Even within a single theory multiple factions often co-exist, emphasizing different players or purported happenings. But under all conspiracy theories lies a common, universal structure.

Conspiracy theories harden pre-existing social differences – differences of class, race, religion, and national origin – into irreconcilable antagonisms, allowing believers to vilify and accuse “them.”

“They” wield tremendous power, shaping world events.

To preserve their power, “they” conceal their true intent through a cover story…

… often with the assistance, or to the benefit of another, more visible and accessible proxy group…

… all while pursuing “their” true agenda.

Despite their often bewildering details, every conspiracy theory can be mapped to this underlying framework.

A chart showing how Flat Earth, White Genocide and False Flag theories map to the universal structure of conspiracy theories.

The common structure of conspiracy theories allows individual elements of any given conspiracy theory to be swapped in and out with ease. It also enables some conspiracy theories to evolve over time and adapt to local circumstances.

This common structure further allows for cross pollination among conspiracy theories, and common belief between them. Every one of the 85 of conspiracy theory believers interviewed by Jigsaw and ReD Associates endorsed multiple conspiracy theories.26

Conspiracy theories find fertile ground in moments of uncertainty, particularly when the stakes are high.

Fueled by conspiracy theories of a stolen election promoted by factions of the mainstream media and political elites, 2020 saw an explosion of interest in voter fraud, but the anxiety itself is not new.

Historical data shows that voter fraud conspiracies have been a consistent feature of American democracy dating back at least as far as the 1890s.27

Conspiracy theories commonly emerge in the wake of major historical events, but are especially likely to develop and spread in the aftermath of tragedy. Plane crashes, terrorist attacks, mass shootings, and natural disasters have all provoked conspiracy theories. These theories provide compelling explanations for otherwise inexplicable events, and create meaning out of shocking and senseless loss.

Transforming accident, unforeseen consequences, and simple incompetence into a clear-cut morality play, the underlying narrative of all conspiracy provides believers a sense of power and agency over a threatening and chaotic world.

More than Just a Theory

S hortly before 1:00 p.m. on June 10, 2009 – long before the world would hear of QAnon or Pizzagate – 88-year-old James von Brunn entered the United States Holocaust Museum in Washington D.C. and shot and killed security gaurd Stephen Taylor Johns.

Von Brunn was quickly brought down and detained, after which officers found a notebook containing a signed note with reference to at least half a dozen conspiracy theories, alleging everything from government plots to abrogate the First and Second Amendments to the fabrication of the Holocaust.28

Outbreaks of violence like this one are the most discussed, but rarest of the manifold harms of conspiracy theories. In addition to the role they play in sanctioning and promoting bloodshed and brutality, conspiracy theories also contribute to the erosion of democratic norms, and take a significant toll on both public and personal health.

Legitimizing Violence

Conspiracy theories loom large in the minds of violent extremists, playing a central role in extremist groups across ideologies, from the Islamic State to the Atomwaffen Division. Amongst extremists, conspiracy theories serve to demonize out-groups, foster a sense of victimization amongst in-groups, delegitimize dissent and moderation, and recast violence as necessary self-defense.29

While some conspiracy theory narratives, like QAnon or the Great Replacement – which holds that elites, often Jews, are conspiring to demographically and culturally replace whites in America and Europe – are inherently antisocial, even seemingly benign conspiracy theories can provoke violent urges amongst extreme believers.

In interviews conducted by Jigsaw and ReD Associates, the extremeness of an individual's beliefs was closely correlated with their perceptions of the actors involved. When individuals believed those responsible for the conspiracy to be a large, vaguely defined group – often little more than an indistinct “they” – adherents of even the most anti-social conspiracy theories expressed surprisingly moderate views and often eschewed violence.

The most extreme believers, however, could name specific families and individuals behind the conspiracy, and used their perceived transgressions to justify violence against them.

In conversation, a moderate believer in the noxious Great Replacement theory primarily directed his anger towards western governments and their role in exacerbating conflict leading to a surge in asylum seekers, but felt powerless and apathetic about bringing those perceived wrongdoers to justice. A committed believer in Flat Earth theory, on the other hand, who could name specific purported puppetmasters, expressed a willingness to murder them.

Moderate belief Extreme belief

Increasing extremism was further correlated with a desire to identify more accessible proxies – those perceived to be in cahoots with the cabal, or benefiting from their actions, like immigrants – as targets for their outrage.

The social othering inherent in conspiracy theories is a necessary precondition for violence, however, it is not a sufficient one. Analysis by the RAND Corporation found that this type of social distancing isn’t consistently marked by antisocial rhetoric. Discussion of alien visitation conspiracy theories, for example, commonly features a notable excitement about the possibility of encountering and engaging with extraterrestrial others.30

Undermining Democratic Governance

Conspiracy theories can also significantly weaken support for democracy amongst adherents. Those with higher levels of conspiratorial belief are far less likely to vote, register to vote, or donate to political causes or candidates.31 For adherents, there can be little point in engaging in democratic processes when the outcome is predetermined.

Even small nudges towards conspiratorial thinking can undermine intentions to participate in politics. A 1995 study found that viewers of Oliver Stone’s JFK, featuring a conspiracy theory connected to the president’s assassination, reported significantly lower voting intentions than those who had not seen the film.32

Individuals expressing high levels of conspiratorial thinking are

50% more likely

to endorse violence as legitimate anti-government protest

More alarmingly, belief in conspiracy theories has been correlated with endorsements of violence as means of political participation. In a nationally representative survey, respondents expressing high levels of conspiratorial thinking were 50 percent more likely to say that violence is a legitimate means of anti-government protest.33 After all, when the other side isn’t fighting fair, and their victory entails not just a temporary setback but cataclysm, the ends can justify nearly any means.

Conspiracy theories generally find the strongest support among those with anti-establishment views and political outgroups, including members of parties facing electoral loss.34 35 36 37 In recent years, however, conspiracy theories have become a staple of the rhetoric of parties in power in countries facing an erosion of democratic norms and rising authoritarianism.38 39 40 41 In these cases, conspiracy theories promulgated by ruling parties allow them to recast themselves as beset by internal and external enemies, in order to publicly legitimize the consolidation of political power.

Ravaging Public & Personal Well-Being

The COVID-19 pandemic has further amplified the antisocial tendencies inherent in some conspiracy theories.

While some prior pandemics have served to renew and deepen civic ties through a sense of common misfortune and fate, others have sparked bouts of conspiracy fueled violence.

Pogroms against European Jews in the fourteenth century are partially attributed to the outbreak of the Black Death and related conspiracy theories that Jews were poisoning wells. In the following centuries, outbreaks of cholera, smallpox, and typhus repeatedly saw waves of violence targeting ethnic minorities and healthcare workers accused of conspiring to further the spread of disease.42

2020 saw a similar outbreak of violence against East Asian immigrants and people of East Asian descent across the United States, Canada, and Western Europe, fueled in part by a conspiracy theory that SAR-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, had been developed by China and released intentionally as a bioweapon.43 In India, Muslims similarly faced violence and accusations of intentionally spreading the disease, a conspiracy dubbed “corona jihad.”44

HIV is Manmade

What percent of Americans do you think believe the AIDS virus was created and spread around the world on purpose by a secret group or organisation?

Holocaust Denial

What percent of Americans do you think believe the official account of the Nazi Holocaust is a lie and the number of Jews killed by the Nazis during World War II has been exaggerated on purpose?

Not exactly Good guess! Close! Perfect!

0%Your guess

0%Answer

All data courtesy of YouGov and the YouGov-Cambridge Globalism Project. Polling was conducted between August 4, 2021 and September 21, 2021.

Over the last two years, conspiracy theories related to COVID-19 have, in the minds of believers, legitimized the flouting of public health guidance, including recommendations on social distancing, mask wearing, and vaccination.45 46 Critically, conspiracies need not attract true believers in order to harm public health. They need only sow sufficient doubt and confusion for individuals to cease taking proactive steps to protect themselves and their communities.47

COVID-19 is further not the first major vaccination effort to be beset by conspiracy theories.

The very first vaccine, developed in the nineteenth-century to stem the spread of smallpox, stoked riots tinged with a conspiratorial edge first in the United Kingdom and then across Europe.48

The modern anti-vaccination movement, alleging a cover-up of a link between autism and the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine, originates in the late 1990s, with a subsequently retracted paper in the medical journal the Lancet.49 Despite measles being officially eradicated in the US in 2000, the steady erosion of faith in all vaccines, and the MMR vaccine in particular, driven by conspiracy theorists has led to a series of new outbreaks in the country, most recently in 2019.50

The very first vaccine, developed in the nineteenth-century to stem the spread of smallpox, stoked riots tinged with a conspiratorial edge first in the United Kingdom and then across Europe.

International vaccination campaigns have likewise been thwarted. In 2003, political and religious leaders in Kano, Zamfara, and Kaduna states in northern Nigeria – one of only a handful of regions globally where polio remained endemic – called on parents to not vaccinate children. Leaders argued the vaccines could be contaminated with antifertility hormones (estradiol), HIV, and cancerous agents, prompting a fifteen-month boycott on vaccines, and a steep rise in cases.51 52

Alternative cures and prophylaxis for COVID-19 have further led to critical drug shortages, including of hydroxychloroquine, leaving lupus and rheumatoid arthritis sufferers at risk of dangerous and even life-threatening flare ups.53 Overdoses from ivermectin, an anti-parasitic falsely promoted by conspiracy theory adherents as a COVID-19 cure, led to a flood of calls to national poison control centers in 2021, and have been linked to at least two deaths.54 55

The harms from extreme conspiracism extend beyond the physical to the psychological. The stigma associated with conspiracy belief can prompt individuals to cut off contact with believers, while fear of social ostracization simultaneously leads theorists to pull back from society even before they’re rejected.56 57

These fears are hardly unjustified. Further research has found that belief in conspiracy theories can predict future social rejection, loss of employment and reduction in income, and an overall decline in well-being.58 According to former believers, at its furthest extent, their attachment to conspiracy theories came to mimic the effects of drug use disorders.59 60

New Perspectives

P ropensity towards conspiracy theories arises out of complex interactions between biographical, psychological, social, political, and economic factors. And every story of the journey to – and back from – conspiracy belief is unique. Taken together, however, the common strands of these lives begin to paint a picture of who adopts conspiracy theories, the meaning those theories hold for them, and how some eventually find their way back.

Over the past three years, Jigsaw and ReD Associates interviewed 85 current and former conspiracy theory believers from Brazil, Canada, Germany, the UK and the US to better understand how adherents first developed their beliefs, what those beliefs meant to them, and how the spread of conspiracy theories might be contained. Pseudonyms have been used to protect their identities.

The Way
Down

T he process of developing extreme belief in conspiracy theories is commonly glossed as “falling down the rabbit hole,” but the journey is rarely so abrupt or fast as the metaphor implies. For many, the path to belief in conspiracy theories begins with a lengthy history of social isolation and a sense of purposelessness.

“I found I was naturally growing apart from people. I just started seeing them less and less.”

— Kenneth (34, Alabama)

While some believers have experienced a lifetime of social ostracization, for many others belief begins with a major life change. Retirement, divorce, return from military service, and severe illness can all upend the routines and social networks that provide stability and meaning in life.

“For the past four years, my days have just been getting worse. I’m stuck in the house, because I have two physical conditions that stop me from going out, so I’ve been plowing my head into doing research.”

— Troy (38, United Kingdom)

“Everything went to hell all at once. My husband left and I just became an emotional wreck. I guess I didn't give a shit anymore.”

— Jina (51, Florida)

Lockdowns and related job losses from the COVID-19 pandemic provided the perfect storm for many, leaving them untethered from their usual routines, isolated from the wider community, and with a sudden glut of time to fill and find meaning and purpose in.

“Since COVID, my social interaction is nil. And I need social stimulation.”

— Dot (67, Florida)

“Mainly I started watching these videos because the pandemic had started. We were on lockdown. I didn't have anything else to do, and a lot of friends at that time were watching them and kind of looking into it.”

— Andy (41, Florida)

“I know it sounds crazy to the average person, and until I started ‘going down that rabbithole,’ and looking at the documents and putting pieces together, I would have laughed at it. But, being on lockdown, I’ve had time to do some research.”

— Karen (48, Alabama)

While much concern has focused on the role of technology – and algorithms in particular – in spreading conspiracy theory belief, most adherents Jigsaw interviewed were introduced to conspiracy theories the old-fashioned way, through friends, colleagues, and family members. Even for those who first encountered conspiracy theories in their newsfeed through posts by acquaintances, their trust in those relationships often made the otherwise far-fetched claims far more palatable.

“A friend texted me, ‘Hi there, are you following Q? Have you watched the Out of Shadows documentary?’”

— Angela (52, Alabama)

“One of my friends sent me some videos introducing Q. I watched them two or three times and I wanted to dig deeper and find out if these were rumors.”

— Karen (48, Alabama)

“Because it came from a friend, and because he is a smart guy, because he is an accomplished successful guy, I didn't dismiss it as I would have if I'd gotten it from somebody else."

— Gary (55, Washington)

For many others, the exact moment they came to believe conspiracy theories can’t be pinpointed. Often, they’ve followed fringe movements or held deep-seated skepticism towards authorities from a young age. For these believers, conspiracy theories don’t reveal hidden secrets, but instead affirm long-standing beliefs about the world.

“This is weird stuff. But it's always been my world.”

— Alice (47, California)

“I watched Ancient Aliens, but before then I didn’t have to watch it to know that extraterrestrials exist.”

— Arthur (55, Alabama)

“From the time that I started research, I had a certain understanding of what I hope and think this awakening is going to be. And I guess, I just really want that so much.”

— Dot (67, Florida)

I Want to Believe

T he details of conspiracy theories are frequently lurid, filled with dark visions of bloodshed, rape and murder, and the real world consequences of conspiracy theories are chilling to consider. For believers, however, even the most violent fantasies offer a measure of delight.

Some conspiracy theory followers compared their initial exposures to the ecstasy of religious conversion.

“I would compare it to a spiritual awakening. Like when you become a Christian and you discover this whole new world that you never knew existed.”

— Karen (48, Alabama)

“It's kind of a spiritual journey. I was listening to this video and it was kind of intriguing.”

— Arthur (55, Alabama)

For others, the experience was more akin to watching a Hollywood blockbuster.

“Man, it’s like I keep saying, we’re in a movie. It's really kind of cool. Even if it comes out that all this was bull-crap it's really fun to watch.”

— Amy (55, Georgia)

While still others found the experience most akin to taking psychotropic drugs.

“In the beginning I felt amazing. It was the greatest natural high I’d ever had. My heart felt super open. I felt a level of care and attention and aliveness I had never felt before in my whole life.”

— Alice (47, California)

“It was exciting, and, at the same time, addictive as well. You got a dopamine hit, you were chasing the buzz. I want that dopamine hit. I want to find something that gets me excited.”

— Ted (50, New York)

Even in the earliest days of belief, however, many already recognized worrying changes in themselves. Even as conspiracy theories gave believers something new, they had begun to strip other aspects of adherent’s lives away.

“I went really deep. I became obsessed with it. The more you scratch, it never ends.”

— Ted (50, New York)

“It was really cool. It was very easy to keep going and lose touch with reality. Everything was on this path—you started to be like, ‘This is a sign.’”

— Jake (33, California)

Despite the warning signs, the allure of conspiracy theories, and, in particular, the community they offered was often irresistible, particularly for individuals whose lives offline were marked by loneliness and ostracization.

“I felt like I was in the right place. With people who felt and thought the same way that I did.”

— Dot (67, Florida)

The attraction of community was particularly acute in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, as fear swept the globe and lockdowns severed social bonds, as well as for many living in rural areas with limited social outlets.

“The day after I started my research, I woke up and I saw a lot of people believed in this too, and there was a community I could wake up to.”

— Alice (47, California)

“It gave me fellowship, particularly when the pandemic had just started. Things were scary. Our lives were kind of changing. We weren’t going into work. I didn’t have that support that I used to get from people at work anymore.”

— Andy (41, Florida)

“I was a part of this community. I was going on more and more and more… and for me there was this sense of belonging.”

— Mitch (23, British Columbia)

Beyond the immediate need for social connection, conspiracy theories also provide hope and a sense of purpose to believers. The image boards where conspiracy theory communities thrive are awash with messages reading “I hope this is true,” and “I want to believe this.” Conspiracy theories, after all, offer an opportunity, even if an illusory one, to correct grave injustices and even save the world.

“If it were not real, I could find a way to cope with it. But I love the idea – or the belief – that there is a plan in place. I am really happy to have hope.”

— Dot (67, Florida)

“This is a beautiful life you can have. You can be a part of this and you can help save the world.”

— Andy (41, Florida)

Just as importantly, for many believers, having faced a lifetime of frustrations, set backs, and losses, conspiracy theories offer a taste of personal pride otherwise absent from their lives.

“I was kind of looking for a secret that I could tell the world and be special.”

— Troy (38, United Kingdom)

“I felt like I’d discovered the secret knowledge, and once you get a little bit of it you need more and more and more.”

— Nolan (40, Ohio)

“At first it was like, ‘Oh, I’m, you know, I feel cooler than everybody else, because I know things that you don't know.’”

— Andy (41, Florida)

While virtually every believer experienced the initial rush of discovery as a pleasurable high, for some their beliefs gradually became all consuming, even mirroring the impacts of drug addiction, and prompting them to forsake other areas of their lives in the pursuit of new leads.

“I was on it everyday, all day for 6 months. I couldn’t find any more information. I was looking at the same information over and over again.”

— Emma (29, North Carolina)

“It's an addictive thing where you feel like you have to know more and more and more. That’s why I would watch 8 hours at a time in my office. You're never satisfied.”

— Nolan (40, Ohio)

“I got so deep in that I permanently rewired my brain. Afterwards, they really couldn’t groom me back into a mainstream way of thinking.”

— Ted (50, New York)

Back Through the Looking Glass

W hile the journey down the rabbithole is a deeply personal one, it follows a common trajectory. The way back is far more complex. Some believers pop out suddenly, prompted by as little as a single conversation with a family member or friend. Others emerge only slowly, gradually finding purpose, community and connection in other areas of their life.

Some conspiracy theorists will eventually fully deradicalize, altering their entire belief system as they step back, but many others simply disengage while continuing to harbor deep suspicions, and still others will never disengage at all.

Disengagement can be prompted by a wide variety of factors. Often, this is driven by the internal dynamics of the community itself, as ever more sensational claims emerge to animate the collective, stretching the already strained plausibility of the theory until it finally snaps.

“I do not for one minute believe that they are farming children for their adrenal glands. We’ve all seen the movie Fear and Loathing. It’s a great gag but it is not happening in real life.”

— Andy (41, Florida)

“All these creators were in lockstep about how the virus is fake and here is me actually seeing people in my community in the hospital. It really made me take a step back. ‘I don't need to be ingesting so much of this stuff.’”

— Nolan (40, Ohio)

Failed predictions, particularly within the context of the massive demands many conspiracy theories place on believers’ time, can likewise dampen engagement, prompting believers to seek out new, more attainable, sources of purpose.

“You know, none of this stuff really happened the way he said it was. We were very hopeful that it would.”

— Arthur (55, Alabama)

“All the claims, nothing came true. You don't want to spend an hour watching someone who is not telling you the truth.”

— Kenneth (34, Alabama)

“It’s time consuming to research stuff for hours and to read all these things. I think around that time I became more interested in saving the elephants and orangutans.”

— Carol (60, California)

For some, disengagement can emerge out of a growing recognition of the less savory individuals they were rubbing shoulders with.

“I’d hear the n-word. It’s not worth my time listening to that. Same with the phrases ‘white power’ or ‘white supremacy.’ I’d just think, ‘how crazy are these people?’”

— Kenneth (34, Alabama)

“When you start reading about threats of, you know, assassinating politicians and taking over Congress and taking things back… It became a little too vocal. It became a little too determined sounding. That to me was a sign that things were beginning to go off the rails.”

— Gary (55, Washington)

“You always hear a lot about the Illuminati. Or some claim that Jews are a reptilian race from space. That's silly. That's nonsense.”

— Dennis (32, Tennessee)

Those for whom conspiracy theories have become all consuming, however, only disengage when they come to realize the toll belief has taken on their lives, if they disengage at all.

“When I was researching all this stuff, my husband noticed I seemed more angry, snappy. I had more anxiety and stress. That anger was getting between me and God.”

— Angela (52, Alabama)

Many turn to conspiracy theories to explain what feels otherwise unexplainable, and to reduce the overwhelming fear and anxiety of a chaotic world. Over time, however, the apocalyptic vision painted by many theories can become just as, if not more, overwhelming than the disillusionment that drove them to belief in the first place.

“Is that the way I wanted to start my day? Wake up in the morning and hear something negative that’s going to cause negative energy? Fall asleep to it and you'll be pissed off all the time too. So I took a little break.”

— Arthur (55, Alabama)

“I noticed when I think about doing more research I feel discomfort in my body. I think it comes from the memory of watching hours of time sucked away. That doesn't really help me in a relationship, my health, anything.”

— Alice (47, California)

“I can see how they would use these different tactics to get all of us to react. Until we are so frenzied, you know, that it becomes chaos and out of control and I don't know what the ultimate goal was with having people that riled up.”

— Andy (41, Florida)

Stepping back from conspiracy theories is deeply challenging, entailing for committed believers in particular a wholesale reimagining of the world and their place in it. The journey back – and the decision to make it – however can offer believers a first taste of agency and the power to change their world that they’ve been seeking all along.

“I was blackpilled, very nihilistic. But I realize now I’m not naturally there. I’m actually an optimistic person.”

— Mike (21, New York)

“I sort of had the realization that I am able to affect my own life, my community. I just stopped going online and getting upset about stuff.”

— Mitch (23, British Columbia)

“I feel like my life is just starting again.”

— Katherine (29, United Kingdom)

Counter
Measures

W hile effective measures to disengage extreme conspiracy theory believers at scale remain elusive, techniques are being researched and refined to prevent conspiracy theories from taking root, and to contain the spread of particularly harmful theories.

“Our research on conspiracy theories grew out of our work in countering violent extremism,” Beth Goldberg, research program manager for Jigsaw, explains.

“While most conspiracy theory believers will never commit an act of violence, conspiratorial thinking and violent extremism are a particularly toxic combination, and the collateral harms of conspiracy theories to public and personal well-being are deeply concerning. Efforts to blunt the spread of conspiracy theories, both those currently in use and those still being studied, build on a substantial body of work in the fields of misinformation studies and preventing violent extremism by researchers around the globe.”

Reflection

O ver the past year, QAnon has begun to slowly drift apart, its already loose and fragmented community fracturing into a number of smaller – though no less concerning – factions. But the underlying issues that drove many to QAnon and other conspiracy theories – alienation, loss of trust, and social isolation – remain potent forces.

Judy, the QAnon believer originally drawn to the theory by its promise of protecting children, woke up on the morning of October 6, 2021 to discover that her Facebook profile, along with those of thousands of other QAnon supporters, had been deleted. But for her, the fascination with Q had ended much earlier, on March 4, after yet another prediction that the 2020 US presidential election would be overturned failed to materialize. “I consider myself smart and well informed on what’s going on in the world,” she says “And I feel like I have been duped, like how old people fall for a social security scam.”

Like many who have disengaged from conspiracy theories and other extreme ideologies, she still harbors some belief. “I believe the Rothschilds run everything,” she asserts. “The President and VP are just puppets.”

It is impossible to draw conclusions from a single anecdote, but, for Judy, the loss of her account had a profound personal effect.

I’m at the age where I just want my life to be settled. I don’t necessarily want excitement anymore.

— Judy

She found herself suddenly cut off from the friends she’d made through QAnon and facing new concerns about losing touch with her children and family, who she’d kept in contact with primarily through Facebook.

While she would eventually create a new account, and reconnect with her children and relatives, the experience also prompted her to step back, taking a full month off from social media, a first for her, she says. Away from the screen, she found new meaning in exploring her spirituality, and relief in distancing herself from the “ugliness” online.

Much work remains to be done to better understand conspiracy theories, how they operate online, and the risks they pose both to believers and the world at large, but for Judy the allure QAnon and conspiracy theories more generally once held has faded. “I’m at the age where I just want my life to be settled. I don’t necessarily want excitement anymore. I would just like to see our kids doing good.”

“It's been a year now,” she says, reflecting on how her life has changed since disengaging with QAnon. “I believe more in myself, that I can make my future, that what I want, I can manifest it. I know what I have to do to work for it.”

Explore more issues

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No. 005

The Conspiracy Theories Issue

About this issue

The Problem

For Judy it was about the children.

6% of Both Parties

How common are these beliefs?

9/11 Truther

Russian Collusion

Anti-Vaxx

Not exactly Good guess! Close! Perfect!

Rather than an explosion of new belief, technology may instead be driving greater awareness of fringe beliefs that have been with us all along.

How common are these beliefs?

New World Order

Global Warming Hoax

Alien Contact

Not exactly Good guess! Close! Perfect!

These things don’t “just happen”

More than Just a Theory

Legitimizing Violence

Moderate belief Extreme belief

Undermining Democratic Governance

50% more likely

Ravaging Public & Personal Well-Being

How common are these beliefs?

HIV is Manmade

Holocaust Denial

Not exactly Good guess! Close! Perfect!

The very first vaccine, developed in the nineteenth-century to stem the spread of smallpox, stoked riots tinged with a conspiratorial edge first in the United Kingdom and then across Europe.

New Perspectives

The WayDown

I Want to Believe

Back Through the Looking Glass

CounterMeasures

Fact Checking

Managing Harmful Content

The Redirect Method

Prebunking

Reflection

Internet Shutdowns

Toxicity

Violent White Supremacy

Disinformation

References

Fact Checking

Managing Harmful Content

The Redirect Method

Prebunking

References

These things don’t
“just happen”

The Way
Down

Counter
Measures